Law of Best Choice

Last updated Feb 9, 2023

• Law

An applicant must be selected on some time interval from an unknown number of rankable applicants. The goal is to maximize the probability of selecting only the best under the hypothesis that all arrival orders of different ranks are equally likely.

1. Set a time interval (deadline) in which to find a candidate
2. Examine and interview applicants coming in
3. For the first 37% of the time interval, reject all candidates, even if they succeed throughout the process
4. Keep a log of all applicants strengths and qualities
5. After the first 37% of the time interval have passed, interview all future applicants as in step 2
6. Hire the first applicant that scores better than all previous.

• Maximizing value return from placement agencies
• Mitigate sunk cost fallacy and confirmation bias to some extent

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